[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 August 13 issued 2330 UT on 20 Aug 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 21 09:30:24 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at low levels with several C1
level flares from regions 1818(S19W88) and 1817(S04W61). The
solar wind speed declined from around at 00UT 450 km/s to 400
km/s at 21UT. A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at
2133UT most probably caused by the arrival of the edge of the
CME observed on the 17th of August. The IMF Bz component swung
northward after the shock arrival and the total field strength
(Bt) is less than 10 nT and falling at time of writing. A strong
full halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery around the end
of the previous UT day (the 19th), however STEREO imagery indicates
that this is a backside event. An additional CME was observed
around 0830UT corresponding to an erupting solar filament seen
in SDO imagery. This is directed mostly to the south, however
LASCO and STEREO images indicate a reasonable fraction of the
ejected material is in the ecliptic plane. The expected arrival
time at Earth from this event is sometime late in the UT day
on the 23rd, day 3 of this forecast. A coronal hole high speed
wind stream is expected to become geoeffective sometime in the
first half of the 21st of August. Solar activity is expected
to be at mostly low levels over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11000002
Cocos Island 1 10000002
Darwin 3 12100013
Townsville 4 22100013
Learmonth 1 01000002
Alice Springs 1 01100002
Norfolk Island 1 10000002
Culgoora 2 11100002
Gingin 1 10000002
Camden 2 11100002
Canberra 1 0-000002
Hobart 2 11010002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00010001
Casey 5 33210002
Mawson 10 31121205
Davis 7 32231201
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2200 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Aug 20 Active
22 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
23 Aug 25 Active
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet condition were observed over the last 24
hours. Some locations have experience Unsettled conditions in
the final 2 hours of the UT day due to minor CME effects in the
solar wind. Unsettled conditions may persist into the first half
of the UT day on the 21st of August, Active or greater conditions
are not expected in this time. However, a high speed solar wind
stream is expected to arrive sometime around the middle of the
UT day which is expected to cause Unsettled to Active conditions,
continuing into the 22nd of August. A further CME impact is expected
midway through the day on the 23rd of August causing Active to
Minor storm conditions on arrival.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Some degradations to HF propagation in mid to high latitudes
may be expected over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Aug 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 83
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Aug 72 Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the 21st
of August UT. Some depressed periods may be experienced in southern
and polar regions late in the UT day and at local dawn on the
22nd of August. Some mildly depressed periods may be experienced
in central and southern regions on the 22nd of August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 466 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 67300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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