[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 26 Apr 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 27 09:30:18 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr: 122/75


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Apr             28 Apr             29 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   113/64             119/71             122/75

COMMENT: Region 1726(now behind the solar west limb) produced 
most of the x-ray flare activity for the UT day, including a 
C7 flare at 0627UT. New active region 1731(N07E61) has developed 
a beta-gamma configuration, it is the most significant feature 
on the solar disc. There are 4 other active regions on the disc, 
although each less than 60 millionths of disc, so only AR1731 
holds much flare potential over the next few days. Solar wind 
speed remains elevated (~550 km/s)under the influence of a coronal 
hole. The IMF Bz component fluctuated +/-5nT over the UT day 
with one sustained negative period (-5nT) from 0200-0400UT. Expect 
relatively stable IMF conditions on a declining solar wind next 
three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Mostly Unsettled

Estimated Indices 26 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   23333322
      Darwin              15   3333333-
      Townsville          12   2333332-
      Learmonth           16   3334333-
      Alice Springs       12   2333332-
      Culgoora            12   23333322
      Gingin              14   2324333-
      Camden              12   23333322
      Canberra            12   2333332-
      Hobart              13   23343322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    27   2445542-
      Casey               14   3433232-
      Mawson              48   5743336-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              44   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary              8   3212 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Apr    12    Unsettled
28 Apr     7    Quiet
29 Apr     7    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 26 April and 
is current for 26-27 Apr. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly 
Unsettled with some Active periods,26 April. Active to Storm 
periods were observed in Antarctica. Expect mostly Unsettled 
conditions 27 April with isolated cases of Active-Minor Storm 
levels at high latitudes, with a return to mostly Quiet conditions 
days 2 and 3 (28-29 April).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Apr    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
    Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Apr    65    Near predicted monthly values
28 Apr    70    Near predicted monthly values
29 Apr    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal 26 April. Expect mostly 
normal ionospheric conditions for next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 452 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:   182000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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