[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 24 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 25 09:30:16 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with a series of low level
C class flares from region 1726(N13W49). Background solar X-ray
flux remains at low levels. Solar activity is expected to be
low over the next 3 days with a chance of moderate activity particularly
from AR1726. Solar wind speed increased steadily over the second
half of the UT day under the influence of a coronal hole, reaching
480km/s at its peak. The IMF Bz remained mostly within +/-10nT
with the exception of a two hours interval of sustained, moderately
southwards orientation (Bz=-18nT) from ~0930-1130UT.The IMF Bz
component may continue to have southward excursions of significance
over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A K
Australian Region 12 32243232
Darwin 12 32333232
Townsville 14 33333332
Learmonth 14 32343233
Alice Springs 11 32233232
Culgoora 11 32233232
Gingin 16 32243343
Camden 13 33243232
Canberra 12 32243232
Hobart 15 32244332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Apr :
Macquarie Island 27 23265442
Casey 14 32333243
Mawson 46 56434366
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 0111 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Apr 12 Unsettled
26 Apr 12 Unsettled
27 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters indicate the arrival of a coronal
hole wind stream. Geomagnetic conditions increased to Unsettled
and Active 09-12UT in response to a sustained period of moderately
southwards-directed IMF. Storm periods were observed at high
latitudes. Expect mostly Unsettled conditions with isolated Active
periods, days 1 and 2 (25-26 April), with a return to mostly
Quiet conditions day 3 (27 April).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Near normal conditions can be expected over the next
3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Apr 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Apr 65 Near predicted monthly values
26 Apr 65 Near predicted monthly values
27 Apr 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions have returned to near normal
at most locations. Possible minor depressions at high latitudes
for today, 25 April, otherwise mostly normal ionospheric conditions
for next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 288 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 18100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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