[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 22 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 23 09:30:19 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Region 1726(N13W35) produced an M1.0 flare at 1029 UT.
This region remains beta-gamma-delta class. Further M-class flare
likely from this region and a slight chance for an X-class flare
over the next 24 hours. A CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO
B images ~1636 UT. The CME is not expected to be geo-effective.
ACE data show the solar wind was undisturbed over the reporting
period. A recurrent coronal hole in the southern hemisphere will
increase the solar wind speed from April 24 onwards. Solar wind
speeds were enhanced (reaching 550km/s) during the previous solar
rotation from the influence of this coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 5 22111221
Learmonth 5 22112212
Alice Springs 4 21111112
Culgoora 2 11111101
Gingin 3 21111111
Camden 2 11111101
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 3 11111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 3 22210101
Mawson 6 32100004
Davis 5 22221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0000 0222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Apr 7 Quiet
24 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
25 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet during the UT day,
22 April. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly
Quiet during the next 24 hours. Conditions are expected to become
Unsettled to Active on 24-25 April with isolated cases of Minor
Storm levels at high latitudes due to a returning coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Apr Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
25 Apr Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Apr 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr 40 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
25 Apr 40 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The propagation conditions were slightly depressed during
the night hours of 22 April at most Australian stations. HF degradations
and MUF depressions are possible from 24-Apr due to an expected
increase in geomagnetic activity, especially in mid and Southern
Aus/NZ regions. Chance of SWFs during the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 282 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 18700 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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