[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 22 Apr 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 23 09:30:05 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Apr             24 Apr             25 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Region 1726(N13W35) produced an M1.0 flare at 1029 UT. 
This region remains beta-gamma-delta class. Further M-class flare 
likely from this region and a slight chance for an X-class flare 
over the next 24 hours. A CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO 
B images ~1636 UT. The CME is not expected to be geo-effective. 
ACE data show the solar wind was undisturbed over the reporting 
period. A recurrent coronal hole in the southern hemisphere will 
increase the solar wind speed from April 24 onwards. Solar wind 
speeds were enhanced (reaching 550km/s) during the previous solar 
rotation from the influence of this coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               7   22222222
      Townsville           5   22111221
      Learmonth            5   22112212
      Alice Springs        4   21111112
      Culgoora             2   11111101
      Gingin               3   21111111
      Camden               2   11111101
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               3   11111111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   10000000
      Casey                3   22210101
      Mawson               6   32100004
      Davis                5   22221111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0000 0222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Apr     7    Quiet
24 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active
25 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet during the UT day, 
22 April. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly 
Quiet during the next 24 hours. Conditions are expected to become 
Unsettled to Active on 24-25 April with isolated cases of Minor 
Storm levels at high latitudes due to a returning coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
24 Apr      Normal-fair    Poor-fair      Poor-fair
25 Apr      Normal-fair    Poor-fair      Poor-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Apr    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Apr    60    Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr    40    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
25 Apr    40    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The propagation conditions were slightly depressed during 
the night hours of 22 April at most Australian stations. HF degradations 
and MUF depressions are possible from 24-Apr due to an expected 
increase in geomagnetic activity, especially in mid and Southern 
Aus/NZ regions. Chance of SWFs during the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 282 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    18700 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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