[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 April 13 issued 2329 UT on 08 Apr 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 9 09:29:04 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 139/93


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Apr             10 Apr             11 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low today with one C1.6 flare 
observed at 1550UT from region 11714. Currently there are eight 
numbered sunspots on the visible solar disk. Solar wind speed 
stayed between 340 and 370 km/s during most parts of the UT day 
today. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-4nT during this 
period, staying positive for relatively longer periods of time. 
Low level of solar activity with some possibility of isolated 
M-class flare may be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               6   22221222
      Townsville           4   12211112
      Learmonth            4   22111111
      Norfolk Island       3   11111111
      Culgoora             1   01100001
      Gingin               3   11111111
      Camden               0   00100001
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               6   13133000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                5   23211111
      Mawson               3   11111012

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1211 3221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed today. 
Quiet to unsettled conditions for the next 2 days and quiet conditions 
for the third day may be expected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
10 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most circuits today. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the third day. 
There is some possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions on 
the first and the second days, especially on mid and high latitude 
locations. Chance of sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) on 
circuits with daylight sectors.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Apr   100

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values
10 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values
11 Apr   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most circuits today. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the third day. 
There is some possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions on 
the first and the second days. Chance of sudden ionospheric 
disturbances (SWFs) on circuits with daylight sectors.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 341 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    37300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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