[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 07 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 8 09:30:18 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 138/92 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Five C-class flares from regions 11713 (N11W47), 11718
(N20E20) and 11719 (N08E53). Region 11719 is growing while other
regions appear stable. A CME was first observed in LASCO and
CME images at 0524 UT; this CME is not expected to be geo-effective.
ACE data show the solar wind was undisturbed over the reporting
period. The solar wind is likely to become somewhat disturbed
during 8 Apr due to the effects of a small coronal hole. The
5 Apr CME may also impact late on 8 Apr. STEREO B images show
the CME as a halo event indicating a broad angular width and
possible impact with Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 12122211
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 22222221
Norfolk Island 5 -2122121
Culgoora 4 11122211
Gingin 6 22122221
Camden 4 11122111
Canberra 2 01122100
Hobart 3 11122110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Apr :
Macquarie Island 8 11144100
Casey 6 22322110
Mawson 8 34222110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Apr 8 Quiet to unsettled
09 Apr 10 Quiet to unsettled
10 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Possible active periods at higher latitudes late 8 Apr
to 9 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Chance of sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) on
circuits with daylight sectors.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Apr 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 15-30% 05-08,
19 UT. Enhanced 40-70% 09-18 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements 20-30%
00-04, 06-07 and 22-23 UT. Depressions 15-20% 13-17 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements 20-40% 09-13
and 17-18 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly 10-30% above predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced to 30% during local day. Mostly near predicted
monthly values during local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Apr 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Apr 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Apr 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Chance of sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) on
circuits with daylight sectors.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 336 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 37600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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