[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 September 12 issued 2350 UT on 27 Sep 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 28 09:50:08 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 133/87


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Sep             29 Sep             30 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Today's largest event 
was a C4.4 flare that peaked at 1722 UT. Solar wind speed stayed 
between 400 and 450 km/s for most parts of the the UT day today 
and the Bz component of IMF mostly varied between +/- 3 nT during 
this period. Low levels of solar activity may be expected for 
the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated M-class activity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   22110001
      Darwin               3   22110002
      Townsville           5   22121121
      Learmonth            6   32111212
      Norfolk Island       2   21100002
      Camden               3   2211-001
      Canberra             2   21100001
      Hobart               2   22110001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     1   11000001
      Casey               10   44321011
      Mawson              12   43410033

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   0100 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Sep     4    Quiet
29 Sep     7    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Sep     7    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Nearly 
similar level of activity may be expected on 28 September with 
the possibility of some enhancements up to unsettled levels on 
29 and 30 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across Aus/NZ 
regions today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for 
the next 3 days in this region with some possibility of minor 
degradations in the Southern Aus/NZ regions on the second and 
third days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Sep   107

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Sep   105    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
29 Sep   100    Near predicted monthly values
30 Sep   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of MUF 
enhancements were observed today. Nearly similar conditions 
may be expected for the next 3 days with some possibility 
of isolated minor degradations on high latitudes on the 
second and third days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 364 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    86400 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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