[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 September 12 issued 2350 UT on 26 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 27 09:50:39 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Today's largest event
was a C1.2 flare from region 1582(S12E68) at 1240UT. Solar wind
speed gradually increased from 300 to 420 km/s during the UT
day today and the Bz component of IMF mostly varied between
+/-8 nT during this period, staying positive for relatively
longer periods of time. Low levels of solar activity may be
expected for the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated
M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 12112122
Darwin 6 22112123
Townsville 7 22212232
Learmonth 7 22122232
Norfolk Island 4 11011132
Camden 5 12112122
Canberra 4 11111122
Hobart 4 11111122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 00000021
Casey 10 23321133
Mawson 11 11111054
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 1001 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Sep 4 Quiet
28 Sep 4 Quiet
29 Sep 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today.
Nearly similar level of activity may be expected for the next
two days with the possibility of some enhancements up to
unsettled levels on the third day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across Aus/NZ
regions today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for
the next 3 days in this region with some possibility of minor
degradations in the Southern Aus/NZ regions on the third day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Sep 107
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Sep 105 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
28 Sep 105 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
29 Sep 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of MUF
enhancements were observed today. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days with some possibility of
isolated minor degradations on high latitudes on the third day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 349 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 69000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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