[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 September 12 issued 2329 UT on 20 Sep 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 21 09:29:56 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Sep             22 Sep             23 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             120/72

COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed over the UT day. 
Active region 1574 (S23W69) produced a number of minor X-ray 
and SF flares throughout the day and appears to be growing. NW 
and NE directed CME's were observed in LASCO imagery. These appear 
to be far-side events. Solar wind speed is mildly elevated at 
about 500 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF was moderately (-10nT) 
negative at the start of the UT day and exhibited fluctuations 
to +/-10nT over the first half of the day. Bz settled to mostly 
neutral values over the second half of the UT day. The Phi component 
fluctuated +/- 180 deg. throughout the day. Solar wind parameters 
are expected to be disturbed days one and two due to a mild coronal 
hole wind stream.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 20 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   33322211
      Darwin               9   33322212
      Townsville          11   33332222
      Learmonth           11   32323322
      Norfolk Island       7   32322110
      Camden               8   23322211
      Canberra             7   22322211
      Hobart               8   23322211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    12   22344211
      Casey               20   45532222
      Mawson              25   43433255

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            15   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             14   1312 2444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Sep    12    Unsettled
22 Sep    12    Unsettled
23 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mildly elevated solar wind speeds and moderate fluctuations 
in the Phi and Bz components resulted in intervals of unsettled 
to active geomagnetic conditions at high latitudes. Isolated 
unsettled periods were observed at some mid-latitude stations 
around 08UT, otherwise conditions remained quiet. Expect unsettled 
periods days one and two due to elevated solar wind parameters, 
with the chance of unsettled to active periods at high latitudes. 
In the IPS magnetometer data for 20 Sep, a weak (14nT) impulse 
was observed at 0624UT. This was associated with Phi and Bz fluctuations 
and is not shock indicative.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable MUF enhancements/depressions observed at low 
latitudes.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Sep    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced 15% 05-06UT. Depressed 15-30% 08-18UT.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Darwin depressed 20% 02-04, 17-18UT.
      Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Christchurch depressed 15% 00-07UT. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed to 30% at times.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Sep    75    Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep    80    Near predicted monthly values
23 Sep    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions to 40% observed Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. Other Aus/NZ regions MUF's mostly normal. Expect 
similar conditions next three days. Expect minor depressions 
days one and two in S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions due to mild geomagnetic 
activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 372 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    54400 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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