[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 September 12 issued 2330 UT on 18 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 19 09:30:47 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep
Activity Very Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed over the UT day.
Solar wind parameters remain nominal with wind speed steady at
~~400 km/s. The IMF Bz sustained mild (-3nT) southward bias 01-16UT
and 22-24UT. A NE-directed CME was observed early in the UT day.
This was probably a far-side event and is unlikely to be geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 22222311
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville 9 23223321
Learmonth 7 22222321
Norfolk Island 5 22122211
Camden 6 12122311
Canberra 4 12122210
Hobart 6 12222310
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Sep :
Macquarie Island 9 12143310
Casey 7 33221211
Mawson 17 45322420
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 2101 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Sep 5 Quiet
20 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was quiet at low to mid
latitudes. Isolated unsettled to active intervals observed at
polar cusp latitudes in response to sustained mild southward
IMF Bz. Expect quiet conditions day one of the forecast period.
A sequence of small coronal holes rotating into geoeffective
position may produce unsettled periods days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable MUF enhancements/depressions observed at low
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Sep 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed 15-30% 12-17UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Darwin enhanced 15-30% 04-06, 10-15UT.
Depressed 30% 16-20UT.
Townsville depressed 15% before local dawn.
Learmonth near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions to 40% observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Other Aus/NZ regions MUF's mostly normal. Expect
similar conditions next three days. Expect minor depressions
days two to three in S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions due to mild geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 53800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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