[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 March 12 issued 2355 UT on 18 Mar 2012

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 19 10:55:21 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Mar             20 Mar             21 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: A C1 flare was observed from region 1434(S20W40) at 
0237UT otherwise solar activity was at Very Low levels during 
18 March. Region 1434 appears stable and region 1432 has decayed 
while region 1435 has shown growth in area and complexity and 
is considered likely to flare. Solar activity is expected to 
stay at Low levels with a slight chance of an isolated M-class 
flare over the forecast period. LASCO C2 images show a halo CME 
in the Northwest limb at 0024UT. STEREO images indicate it is 
a far side event and is not expected to be geo-effective. The 
solar wind speed gradually decreased from around 650Km/s and 
is now around 550Km/s. The IMF Bz ranged between +2/-4nT staying 
southwards for relatively longer periods between 00-11UT. Solar 
wind speed parameters are expected to further decline to become 
undisturbed day 1. 





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   32231212
      Darwin               6   32221112
      Townsville           7   32231211
      Learmonth            9   32232222
      Norfolk_Island       7   22231212
      Camden               7   32131212
      Canberra             6   32131111
      Hobart              11   33242222
    
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Mar :
      Macquarie_Island    13   23352211
      Casey               16   44432223
      Mawson              55   76444555
 

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             22   4443 2344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Mar    12    Unsettled 
20 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Mar     7    Quiet 

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled 
for the first half of the UT day for the Australian region, becoming 
Quiet over the second half of the UT day. There was moderate 
sustained southward IMF Bz observed across the first half of 
the UT day is most likely the cause. Minor and Major Storm periods 
in Antarctica were observed today. A weak shock from the Mar 
15 flare wich has not yet eventuated, may occur early day one 
of the forecast period. Activity may increase day 1 if a Southward 
Bz component remains in the solar wind stream. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
20 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
21 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair



-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Mar    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
         Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Poor ionospheric support over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Mar    65    About 20% below predicted monthly values 
20 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
21 Mar    75    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Night time depressed MUF periods observed in Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. Generally weak ionospheric support Antarctic region. 
Sporadic E and Spread F conditions were observed at times during 
18 March wich may have degraded HF conditions. Conditions are 
improving and MUFs should be depressed by at most 20% for the 
next day. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 657 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:   198000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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