[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 March 12 issued 2351 UT on 17 Mar 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 18 10:51:55 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    2039UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Mar             19 Mar             20 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54

COMMENT: One impulsive M1 flare observed at 2039UT from region 
1434(S22W27). This region appears stable, region 1435 (S26W37)grew 
rapidly overnight while region 1432(N14W39) has decayed. Solar 
activity is expected to stay mostly at Low levels with the possibility 
of an isolated M-class flare over the forecast period. the solar 
wind speed remained elevated, fluctuating between 620-700Km/s 
over the UT day. The IMF Bz ranged between +4/-6nT with notable 
southward periods. Further disturbance to the solar wind parameters 
is likely over the next 2 days due to CME effects. Solar wind 
parameters should begin to settle over day 3.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Mostly Unsettled with isolated
Active periods.

Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   33332333
      Darwin              14   33332333
      Townsville          14   33332333
      Learmonth           16   33343333
      Norfolk Island      10   32322322
      Camden              15   33432333
      Canberra            12   23332323
      Hobart              16   33433333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    31   34564433
      Casey               22   44443334
      Mawson              62   64453676

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar : 
      Darwin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            74   (Active)
      Canberra            43   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              77   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             21   4343 3443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Mar    20    Active
19 Mar    20    Active
20 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 17 March and 
is current for 17-18 Mar. As anticipated, predominantly Unsettled 
with Active periods conditions for the Australian region with 
Minor and Major Storm periods in Antarctica were observed today. 
Conditions are expected to be more active for days 1 and 2 due 
to the anticipated CME effects with activity declining thereafter.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal-fair    Fair           Poor           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Normal-fair    Fair           Poor
19 Mar      Normal-fair    Fair           Poor
20 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor

COMMENT: Continuing ionospheric disturbance likely next two days 
due to elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Mar    48

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.      
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Poor ionospheric support over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Mar    50    About 30% below predicted monthly values
19 Mar    50    About 20% below predicted monthly values
20 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on 17 March 
and is current for 18 Mar only. Ongoing disturbances S Aus/NZ/Antarctic 
regions. Variable depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions. 
Spread F was observed at times in S Aus / NZ region. Expect degraded 
ionospheric conditions next three days due to further anticipated 
geomagnetic disturbances. S Aus / NZ / Antarctic regions most 
likely to be affected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 658 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:   174000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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