[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 June 12 issued 2329 UT on 27 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 28 09:29:41 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at low levels with several C
class flares from regions 1512(S16E25) and 1513(N16E71) the greater
magnitude flare was C3. Region 1512 showed continued growth over
the last 24 hours. No geoeffective CMEs were observed. The solar
wind speed increased from around 400 to 500 km/s over the day.
The IMF Bz component ranged between +/- 5nT. Solar activity is
expected to remain Low over the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11112111
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 6 22222212
Learmonth 6 22222212
Norfolk Island 1 01001111
Camden 2 01102101
Canberra 2 01002101
Hobart 1 -010----
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 00013200
Casey 6 22212212
Mawson 5 21212211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 167 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 2322 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jun 5 Quiet
29 Jun 5 Quiet
30 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet and are expected
to remain mostly Quiet for the next 3 days. A co-rotating interaction
region ahead of a coronal hole high speed stream is expected
to arrive late of the 30th of June or early on the 1st of July.
Unsettled to Active conditions are expected following the arrival.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24
was issued on 26 June and is current for 27-28 Jun. HF propagation
conditions are good however the maximum useable frequencies are depressed
due to low levels of ionising EUV flux and are expected to remain
depressed for the next 1-2 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jun 48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jun 50 Depressed up to 30%
29 Jun 60 Depressed up to 20%
30 Jun 65 Depressed up to 20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 26 June
and is current for 27-28 Jun. IPS HF Communications Warning 24
was issued on 26 June and is current for 27-28 Jun. MUF depressions
were observed over most of the Australian region during the last
24 hours. The ionising solar UV flux has increased from low levels
over the last day and is expected to trend upwards over the next
few days. This is expected to increase the MUFs although depressions
are likely to persist for at least the next 2 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 97200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list