[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 12 issued 2330 UT on 26 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 27 09:30:38 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with only two C1 flares.
No large or magnetically complex sunspot regions are currently
on the visible Sun. The solar wind speed ranges between 380-480
km/s, declining towards the end of the UT day. The IMF Bz component
ranged between +/- 5 nT. Solar activity is expected to remain
Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 22120101
Darwin 3 22120101
Townsville 7 23221212
Learmonth 5 22221111
Norfolk Island 2 12120000
Camden 3 12120101
Canberra 2 12120000
Hobart 4 -2120---
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 02230000
Casey 6 33211101
Mawson 16 34343223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 55 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 9 1232 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jun 5 Quiet
28 Jun 5 Quiet
29 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet with some isolated Active
periods in Antarctica. Conditions are expected to be Quiet for
the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are good however the maximum
useable frequencies are depressed due to low levels of ionising
EUV flux and are expected to remain depressed for the next 3
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jun 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jun 50 Depressed by up to 30%
28 Jun 50 Depressed by up to 30%
29 Jun 50 Depressed by up to 30%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 26 June
and is current for 27-28 Jun. IPS HF Communications Warning 24
was issued on 26 June and is current for 27-28 Jun. MUF depressions
were observed over most of the Australian region during the last
24 hours. MUFs are expected to be depressed by up to 30% in the
Australian region for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 63000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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