[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 February 12 issued 2354 UT on 20 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 21 10:54:43 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Feb 22 Feb 23 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today. Three C-class flares were
observed today, the largest being a C4.1 at 0509 UT from region
1421 (N18E32). Solar wind speed stayed mostly between 500 and
550 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF showed
fluctuations between +/-8 nT until around 6 UT today and then
stayed negative up to -5nT during most parts of the remaining
day. Solar activity is expected to stay a Low levels for the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Feb : A K
Australian Region 15 33333333
Darwin 13 33233323
Townsville 15 33333333
Learmonth 17 33344323
Norfolk Island 11 32232233
Camden - --------
Canberra 11 22233332
Hobart 15 33343332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Feb :
Macquarie Island 26 33365421
Casey 28 46533333
Mawson 48 54443647
Davis 34 3554----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Feb :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 16 4521 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Feb 5 Quiet
23 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity
with isolated periods of Active to Minor storm levels were observed
today. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels of activity with some
possibility of isolated Active periods may be expected for 21
February. Mostly Quiet levels of activity may be expected on
22 and 23 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depression in MUFs may be expected
on mid and high latitudes on 21 February. Mostly normal HF conditions
may be expected on 22 and 23 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Feb 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
22 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
23 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values with
depressions seen at high latitudes. Enhanced geomagnetic activity
levels seem to be causing some depressions in MUF at the time
of this report. These depressions may continue for the next 24
hours. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 22 and
23 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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