[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 February 12 issued 2329 UT on 07 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 8 10:29:34 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low Very Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
region 1410 (N17W82) producing several C-class flares. Solar
activity is expected to be low to moderate until AR1410 rotates
off the disc during 8-Feb. The solar wind speed has gradually
increased from ~400km/s to 500km/s over the last 24 hours. The
IMF Bz varied between +6nT to -8nT, with sustained southward
periods 7-9UT, 11-15UT and 18UT to the time of this forecast.
Further solar wind speed elevation is expected from 9-Feb due
to the onset of coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A K
Australian Region 12 22234233
Darwin 11 22224233
Townsville 14 23234333
Learmonth 16 22235333
Norfolk Island 10 21234222
Camden 12 21234233
Canberra 12 22234233
Hobart 13 22234333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Feb :
Macquarie Island 24 22156432
Casey 26 34643234
Mawson 36 33433357
Davis 40 23554347
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb :
Darwin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1200 1332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Feb 12 Unsettled
09 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
10 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet early in the
UT day but became unsettled later, with some active and minor
storm periods coinciding with periods of sustained southward
IMF Bz. These conditions are expected to deteriorate further
from 9-Feb due to expected coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Brief periods of sporadic-E were observed at low and
mid latitudes over the last 24 hours. There were periods of poor
ionospheric support in the Antarctic region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Feb 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Feb 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
09 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
10 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: MUFs were normal to depressed by 20% over the last 24
hours. Slightly deeper depressions are likely from 9-Feb, due
to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 63700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list