[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 February 12 issued 2337 UT on 06 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 7 10:37:01 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 2002UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Very Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours,
with most activity from active region 1410 (N17W64), which showed
some growth and produced an M1 flare at 06/2000. A CME observed
early in the UT day is not expected to be geoeffective. Solar
activity is expected to be low to moderate until AR1410 rotates
off the disc. The solar wind speed has remained ~400km/s for
the last 24 hours. The IMF Bz varied between +/-5nT, with a sustained
southward period from 14-20UT. Some coronal hole effects are
possible from late on 9-Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 21101332
Darwin 8 22212332
Townsville 8 22212332
Learmonth 7 21111332
Norfolk Island 4 12101222
Camden 6 11101332
Canberra 4 11001321
Hobart 6 21102331
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Feb :
Macquarie Island 7 11102431
Casey 16 43432332
Mawson 32 33322753
Davis 21 23432362
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 3111 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have been mostly quiet, with
an unsettled conditions from ~15-21UT corresponding to a sustained
period of southward Bz. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected
for the next 3 days, with a possible increase in activity from
late on 9-Feb, when mild coronal hole effects are expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Feb 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Feb 70 Near predicted monthly values
08 Feb 70 Near predicted monthly values
09 Feb 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly normal over the last 24 hours, with
some mild depressions in the northern Australian region. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 76700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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