[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 January 12 issued 2334 UT on 31 Jan 2012

Wed Feb 1 10:34:08 EST 2012

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 117/69

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Feb             02 Feb             03 Feb
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: A CME, in conjunction with a disappearing filament in 
the south-west quadrant, was observed at ~1456UT in SDO spacecraft 
images and later in Stereo-A (1754UT) and SOHO (C2 at 1924UT 
and C3 at 2022UT). ACE solar wind parameters returned to mostly 
undisturbed levels over the reporting period with Vsw near 350 
km/s. High energy (10 MeV) proton fluxes at geostationary orbit 
associated with the 27 January X flare steadily descended in 
the last 24 hours and returned below the 10pfu threshold level. 
AR1410 (20N, 20E) is the largest sunspot group and growing but 
only the declining smaller region 1408 (8N, 50W) produced X-ray 
flares, a couple of smaller B class events.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22211011
      Darwin               5   22221112
      Townsville           6   22221122
      Learmonth            4   22211012
      Norfolk Island       3   22110011
      Camden               3   12211011
      Canberra             2   12110001
      Hobart               2   12210001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     1   11101000
      Casey               12   35321111
      Mawson               5   33211100
      Davis                9   33322221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             9   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   0010 1333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Feb     5    Quiet
02 Feb     5    Quiet
03 Feb     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity only just reached Unsettled levels 
at the start of 31 January UT in the Australian region due to 
the glancing impact of a CME at ~16UT 30Jan as it had Bz north 
and a modest solar wind speed rise. Conditions have returned 
to Quiet and are expected to remain for the next 3 days. A coronal 
hole will rotate into geo-effective position perhaps late on 
day 3 but it is longitudinally thin so the enhanced solar wind 
speed will only briefly disturb the geomagnetic field.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : Began at 1915UT 27/01, Ended at 0715UT 31/01

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Geomagnetic effects of glancing CME blow late 30Jan 
have dissipated, even at polar latitudes so ionosphere should 
be at normal state for the next 3 days. Equatorial latitudes 
may be more variable than usual due to lingering effects of recent 
geomagnetic activity taking longer to dissipate in the inner 
magnetosphere.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
31 Jan    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Feb    80    Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb    80    Near predicted monthly values
03 Feb    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values but very 
variable at near equatorial latitudes in the central (DWN, TVL) 
and western (Cocos Is) sectors. MUFs are expected to be near 
monthly averages for the next 3 days. Possibly higher than normal 
variability at near equatorial latitudes due to the lingering 
effects of recent geomagnetic activity taking longer to disperse 
in the inner magnetosphere above it.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.4E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 377 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    52800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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