[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 12 11:32:30 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ** CORRECTED VERSION**
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: AR1283 (N14W87) produced a long duration C6.6 flare
with peak time 08:51UT associated with a type II radio burst
and a CME. Further C and M class flares from this region are
possible for the next 24 hours. New region (N08E66) was numbered
today. The solar wind speed varied in the range 560-620 Km/s
and the IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT over the last 24 hours.
Elevated wind speed is likely due to the continued CME and the
coronal hole high speed stream effects. Disturbance in solar
wind parameters is anticipated for the the next 3 days due the
effect of the coronal hole and a possible glancing blow from
CMEs observed on September 10.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 32113213
Darwin 7 32112213
Townsville 8 22222223
Learmonth 9 32213223
Alice_Springs 5 22112212
Norfolk_Island 6 22112222
Gnangara 9 32113223
Camden 7 22113213
Canberra 6 22013212
Hobart 8 32113213
Macquarie_Island 8 3301-312
Casey 13 -4322224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep :
Darwin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 89 (Minor storm)
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 33 5544 3435
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
13 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
14 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions over the last 24 hours
for the Australian region, with some active and storm periods
in Antarctica. Conditions are expected to be more active for
days 1 and 2 due to the effect of the high speed solar wind stream
from a recurrent coronal hole and possible CMES effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be slightly degraded at
times over the next few days as the result of recent geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Sep 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with
periods of MUF enhancements. Nearly similar conditions may be
expected for the next 3 days with the possibility of minor degradations
on high latitude due to the possibility of enhancements in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 485 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 128000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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