[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 September 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 13 09:52:15 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 124/77


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Sep             14 Sep             15 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours and is 
expected to be Low with the chance of M-class flares for the 
next 3 days. Region 1292(N08E52) and newly numbered region 1295(N21E72)produced 
several C-class flares the largest being C9.9 at 2054 UT from 
region 1295. The solar wind speed has mostly varied between 580-660 
Km/s over the last 24 hours. The IMF Bz mostly varied between 
+/-5nT staying southwards (around -6 nT) between 14UT and 21UT. 
Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated for the next 
2 days due the effect of a recurrent coronal hole.

Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1283 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 25 Sep.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Unsettled to Active

Estimated Indices 12 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      18   33343343
      Darwin              15   33333333
      Townsville          16   33343333
      Learmonth           21   33344443
      Alice_Springs       14   22343333
      Norfolk_Island      15   33343332
      Gnangara            18   32343443
      Camden              16   33343333
      Canberra            15   23343333
      Hobart              21   33443443
      Macquarie_Island    28   334-5-53
      Casey               21   4-443343    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep : 
      Darwin              73   (Active)
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Alice_Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gnangara           194   (Severe storm)
      Canberra            78   (Active)
      Hobart              99   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             28                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   3211 3213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Sep    12    Unsettled
14 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: As anticipated, mostly Unsettled to Active conditions 
for the Australian region with minor and major storm periods 
in Antarctica were observed today. Conditions are expected to 
remain enhanced up to Unsettled levels with isolated active periods 
for the next 2 days due to the effect of the high speed solar 
wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole with activity declining 
thereafter.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
14 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
15 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be slightly degraded at 
times over the next few days as the result of enhanced geomagnetic 
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Sep    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  62

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Sep    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
14 Sep    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
15 Sep    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today. Some 
MUF depressions were observed particularly during local night. 
Day time propagation conditions are expected to be good for the 
next 3 days with possible night time depressed periods.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 595 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:   152000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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