[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 September 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 5 09:41:33 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.2 1145UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours,
with an M3 flare at 04/1145 and four C-class events from an area
near regions 1280 (N13W91) and 1286 (N20W75). A C9 flare from
this area at 04/0453 was associated with a type II radio sweep.
West limb CMEs observed in LASCO imagery at 04/0912 and 04/1212
appear not to be geoeffective. Regions 1283 (N14E11) and 1287
(S20E53) showed signs of growth. Solar activity is expected to
remain Low over the next 3 days with a chance of further M-class
events. The solar wind speed ranged from 300-450km/s over the
UT day. The IMF Bz remained mostly neutral for most of the UT
day, with some excursions to +/-5nT from 15-19UT. The solar wind
speed is expected to decline from 06Sep as coronal hole effects
abate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 22112321
Darwin 7 22112322
Townsville 10 23223322
Learmonth 6 22103320
Gnangara 9 22113421
Camden 6 22103311
Canberra 3 11102210
Casey 7 23211321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13 3323 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Sep 5 Quiet
07 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet to Unsettled over
the last 24 hours, with Active and Minor Storm periods observed
in the Antarctic region. Conditions are expected to remain Quiet
to Unsettled with some Active periods on 05Sep due to coronal
hole effects. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for 06-07Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Sep 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed to 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 62
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Sep 52 Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Daytime MUF enhancements observed in Cocos Island region,
with nighttime depressions there and in Northern AUS. Mostly
normal conditions elsewhere. MUFs are expected to be near monthly
predicted values over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 155000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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