[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 September 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 6 09:29:21 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6    0416UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.2    0758UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 119/71

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Sep             07 Sep             08 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours, 
with M1 flares at 05/0428 and 05/0758UT from region 1286 (N20W84). 
CMEs observed in LASCO imagery at 05/0048 and 05/0336 appear 
not to be geoeffective. Regions 1283 (N14W03) showed signs of 
growth and increased magnetic complexity. Solar activity is expected 
to remain Low over the next 3 days, with a chance of further 
M-class events. The solar wind speed declined from ~400km/s to 
~320km/s, then from 07UT climbed gradually to reach ~450km/s. 
The IMF Bz varied from -7nT to +5nT during the UT day. The solar 
wind speed is expected to decline slightly from 06Sep as coronal 
hole effects abate.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 05 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22111232
      Darwin               7   12212232
      Townsville           9   22222332
      Learmonth            6   12112231
      Gnangara             8   11111342
      Camden               5   21101232
      Canberra             2   21000121
      Casey                9   23311232    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   2321 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Sep     5    Quiet
07 Sep     5    Quiet
08 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet to Unsettled over 
the last 24 hours, with brief periods to Major Storm levels observed 
in the Antarctic region. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Sep    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  62

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Sep    55    Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep    57    Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Some depressed MUF periods observed in low equatorial 
regions, with daytime depressions in Northern AUS. Mostly normal 
conditions elsewhere. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted 
values over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:   120000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list