[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 30 10:30:21 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jan 31 Jan 01 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Solar wind speed
varied between 270 and 310 km/s and the Bz component of IMF
varied between +/-4 nT during most parts of the UT day today.
Very low levels of solar activity with some possibility of
C-class activity may be expected for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22212211
Darwin 5 22112212
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 7 31212311
Canberra 3 21112200
Hobart 4 22212200
Casey(Ant) 9 3-332211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2101 0221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jan 3 Quiet
31 Jan 3 Quiet
01 Feb 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at
quiet levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed
on most locations today. Nearly similar HF conditions may be
expected for the next 3 days as no significant variation to
the ionospheric conditions is expected during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jan 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
31 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
01 Feb 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed
in the Aus/NZ regions today alongwith the presence of
sporadic E-layers at times. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected in this region for the next three days
as no significant variation to the ionospheric conditions
is expected during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 302 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 22300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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