[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 29 10:14:11 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0103UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jan 30 Jan 31 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate today. Region 1149 produced
an M1 flare at 0103 UT and two C1 flares that respectively peaked
at 0435 and 1022 UT. The M1 flare was associated with a Type II
radio sweep and a CME with its speed estimated as 900 km/s
by Culgoora observatory. This CME is not earthward directed.
Solar wind speed varied between 280 and 320 km/s and the Bz
component of IMF varied between +/-5 nT during most parts of
the UT day today. Very low levels of solar activity with some
possibility of C-class activity may be expected for the next
three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 22111211
Darwin 6 32111212
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 7 32112312
Canberra 2 11011210
Hobart 3 11011211
Casey(Ant) 9 3-322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1011 1120
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jan 3 Quiet
30 Jan 3 Quiet
31 Jan 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at
quiet levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed
on most locations today. Nearly similar HF conditions may
be expected for the next 3 days as no significant variation
to the ionospheric conditions is expected during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jan 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jan 3 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
30 Jan 3 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
31 Jan 3 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed
in the Aus/NZ regions today alongwith the presence of sporadic
E-layers at times. Nearly similar conditions may be expected
in this region for the next three days as no significant
variation to the ionospheric conditions is expected during
this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 298 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 27300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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