[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 24 10:30:59 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Region 1161 (N13W69) produced a C1.2 event at 1223 UT.
Both regions 1161 and 1162 (N18W73) have simplified. There is
the chance of C-class flares from 1161. The solar wind speed
decreased from about 430 to 380 km/s. Other solar wind parameters
were relatively undisturbed. Solar wind parameters are expected
to be mostly undisturbed over the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 11221111
Darwin 5 11231112
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 3 11211111
Canberra 1 00201000
Hobart 3 012-----
Casey(Ant) 10 23422122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 1001 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Feb 6 Quiet to unsettled
25 Feb 5 Quiet
26 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated active conditions possible at higher latitudes
day one.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Feb 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Note: data available only for time periods stated below.
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-04, 22 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-03 UT. Depressed to
20% 04, 21-22 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-09, 15-16, 18-23 UT.
No Townsville data.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-04 UT. Near predicted
monthly values 05-10, 17, 22-23 UT, depressions to 25%
11-16 UT at Brisbane. Near predicted monthly values at
Canberra and Sydney 05-23 UT. Near predicted monthly
values at Hobart 05-09 UT. Near predicted monthly
values 22-23 UT at Norfolk Is. and Perth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values 00-04, 22 UT with
depressions to 25% 04 UT at Casey and Mawson.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Feb 25 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
25 Feb 25 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
26 Feb 25 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: Expect variable conditions. Depressions greater than
20% can be expected at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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