[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 23 10:29:48 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 88/32 85/27
COMMENT: Both regions 1161 (N11W56) and 1162 (N17W59) have decreased
in size and spot count. Region 1161 still has the potential for
C-class flares. The solar wind speed peaked at 470 km/s ending
the period around 420 km/s. Other solar wind parameters were
relatively undisturbed. Solar wind speed may increase over the
period due to the influence of a small coronal hole. Other parameters
are expected to remain mostly undisturbed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 3 21111111
Canberra 1 21000000
Hobart 2 11111100
Casey(Ant) 8 33321211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2212 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Feb 7 Quiet to unsettled
24 Feb 7 Quiet to unsettled
25 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated active conditions possible at higher latitudes
days one and two.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Feb 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 20%
07-09 UT and depressions to 25% 03-04, 13-18, 23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhancements to 35% 00-06 UT and depressions to 23%
08-12 UT. Near predicted values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 23%
05-07 UT at Darwin. No data from Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%
08-14 UT at Brisbane, Canberra, Norfolk Is. and
Sydney. Depressions to 20% 02-13 and 19-20 UT at
Hobart. Enhancements to 30% 18-21 UT at Perth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
mostly 00-07 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Feb 25 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
24 Feb 25 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
25 Feb 25 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: Expect variable conditions. Depressions greater than
20% can be expected at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 53800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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