[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 February 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 7 10:46:20 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Feb             08 Feb             09 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              78/17              78/17
COMMENT: Active regions on the disc are not likely to produce 
any significant flares at this time. Solar wind speed slowly 
decreased from ~600km/sec to ~530 km/sec over the last 24 hours 
as the coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective position. Expect 
further gradual decreases in solar wind speed over the next 2-3 
days. IMF Bz oscillated north-south with significant periods 
southwards but only at a moderate strength less than 5nT. Electron 
flux at geostationary orbit has been rising steadily over the 
last 24 hours, particularly energies above 2MeV, possibly causing 
spacecraft charging issues. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 06 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   22343322
      Darwin               8   22232222
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth           11   22243322
      Canberra            11   22343311
      Hobart              12   22343312
      Casey(Ant)          17   3--43333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            13   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13   4332 1232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Feb     6    Quiet 
08 Feb     4    Quiet 
09 Feb     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: After a geomagnetic disturbance early in the UT day 
from a solar wind speed and IMF abrupt change, the magnetic field 
has been trending down to Quiet conditions as solar wind speed 
steadily decreases. Expect geomagnetic conditions to gradually 
settle to Quiet levels over the next 2-3 days as the coronal 
hole rotates out of geoeffective position. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Feb    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  38

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Feb    25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
08 Feb    25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
09 Feb    35    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Expect continuing mild depressions across the Australiasian 
region for the next two days as the ionosphere recovers from 
coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity, and lower than usual 
EUV ionising radiation from solar active regions. Occasional 
sporadic-E occurred across the region and this is likely to continue. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 600 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:   143000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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