[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 6 10:13:07 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Active regions 11150, 11152, and 11153 are not likely
to produce any significant flares at this time. Solar wind speed
ranged from 500 to 650 km/s over the last 24 hours. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +9/-15nT,
however, settled to +/-4nT after 05/0500UT. Expect a gradual
decrease in solar wind speed over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 05 Feb : A K
Australian Region 13 43332232
Darwin 9 33222222
Learmonth 12 43222332
Canberra 11 33332222
Hobart 14 34332332
Casey(Ant) 17 5--32233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 51 (Unsettled)
Canberra 42 (Unsettled)
Hobart 52 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 21 1321 1265
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Feb 6 Quiet
08 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Expect geomagnetic conditions to gradually settled to
Quiet levels over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Feb 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Feb 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
07 Feb 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
08 Feb 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Expect mild depressions in the Australian/NZ and Antarctic
regions today, 06 February. During the following two days expect
mild depressions at mid to low latitudes due to lower than predicted
solar activity with mid to high latitudes at near predicted MUF
values. Ocassional sporadic E was present in the Australian region,
this trend is likely to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 67900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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