[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 February 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 2 10:45:31 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb:  80/20

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Feb             03 Feb             04 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Active region 11150 is not expected to produce any
significant flares in the next 24 hours. Solar wind speed increased 
from 300 to 540 km/s over the last 24 hours due to recurrent coronal 
hole. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged 
between +7 and -12 nT, dipping below -10nT for approximately 1 hour 
around 04-05UT. Expect an elevated solar wind speed for the next 
three days due to coronal hole. Weak CME observed 30 January and 
Earthward directed may arrive 03-04 February. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 01 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33422332
      Darwin              11   33322322
      Learmonth           13   33322333
      Canberra            10   33312322
      Hobart              11   23411332
      Casey(Ant)          20   --5-2333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   0000 0332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Feb    12    Unsettled 
03 Feb    12    Unsettled 
04 Feb    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Expect Unsettled conditions at low to mid latitudes 
with isolated cases of Active to Minor Storm levels at high latitudes 
due to an increase in solar wind speed over the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 Feb    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  40

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Feb    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
03 Feb    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
04 Feb    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed in 
the Aus/NZ regions today along with the presence of sporadic 
E-layers at times. Expect this trend to continue for the next 
three days with mild depressions at high to mid latitudes due 
to increase in geomagnetic activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 272 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:    13700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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