[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 January 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 1 10:49:13 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan:  81/22

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Feb             02 Feb             03 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Active region 1150 is not expected to produce any significant 
flares in the next 24 hours. Solar wind speed varied between 250 and 
340 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was
mostly positive with a brief period where it went negative to -9nT 
between 1700 and 1800UT. Also noted a sudden increase in solar wind 
speed and density at approximately 1500 UT. Expect a increase in the 
solar wind speed on 2 February due to a recurrent coronal hole becoming 
geoeffective. LASCO C2 imagery shows a large CME on the west limb of 
the sun first visible on the 31/1636UT image. It is not expected to be 
geoeffective. A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 
1505UT on 31 Jan. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 31 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22211222
      Darwin               9   22211333
      Learmonth            9   22221333
      Canberra             5   12210222
      Hobart               5   12210222
      Casey(Ant)           8   23321122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Feb     6    Quiet 
02 Feb    12    Unsettled 
03 Feb    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at Quiet 
levels for 01 February. Activity is expected to increase the 
following two days due to an increase in solar wind speed induced 
by a recurrent coronal hole. Expect Unsettled conditions at low 
to mid latitudes with isolated cases of Active to Minor Storm 
levels at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
31 Jan    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  37

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Feb    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
02 Feb    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20% 
03 Feb    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed in 
the Aus/NZ regions today along with the presence of sporadic 
E-layers at times. Expect this trend to continue for the next 
three days with additional minor depressions at high latitudes 
on 02 and 03 February due to increase in geomagnetic activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 276 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    16100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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