[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 December 11 issued 2351 UT on 28 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 29 10:51:56 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Dec 30 Dec 31 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: There have been several C-class flares over the last
24 hours. The largest of these flares was a C7.2 flare from new
region 1389 (S20E70) at 1425UT. Further C-class activity is expected
over the next 3 days with the chance of an isolated M-class event.
Solar wind speed was approximately 240Km/s between 00UT-10UT
after wich it steadily increased to be 360Km/s at the time of
this report. The slight increase in solar wind speed is most
likely the signature of the first arrival of several CMEs observed
on 25-26 December. The IMF Bz stayed positive from 00-10UT then
increased to fluctuate between +/- 10nT for the rest of the UT
day. Solar wind speed is expected to continue increasing over
the next 2 days due to the arrival of multiple CMEs. A southern
polar coronal hole might also contribute to enhanced wind speed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 12123322
Darwin 11 32223332
Townsville 10 12133332
Learmonth 10 22133332
Norfolk Island 5 12122221
Camden 8 12123322
Canberra 7 12122322
Hobart 7 12122322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 01011111
Casey 12 33323223
Mawson 8 12112333
Davis 9 22223322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Dec 20 Quiet to Active
30 Dec 20 Quiet to Active
31 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 28 December
and is current for 28-30 Dec The Australian geomagnetic field
was mostly Quiet over the first part of the UT day. Moderate
southward IMF Bz during the later part of the UT day resulted
in Unsettled geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region.
Quiet to Active conditions with Storm periods in Antarctica may
be expected for the next 2 days due to the expected arrival of
CMEs and that of a coronal hole.
In the IPS magnetometer data for 28 Dec, a weak (11nT) impulse
was observed at 1115UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Dec 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values
31 Dec 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly good propagation conditions were observed. Blanketing
sporadic E was observed at times in the equatorial region and
also for much of the local night at Hobart. Near monthly predicted
MUFS are expected over the next 3 days with the possibility of
depressions at high latitudes due to the increased geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 250 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 13500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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