[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 December 11 issued 2350 UT on 27 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 28 10:50:05 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Dec 29 Dec 30 Dec
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Region 1386(S18E22) and region 1387(S21W57) produced
several C-class flares, the largest being a C8.9 flare from region
1386 at 0422UT. This was accompanied by a type II radio burst
seen in the Culgoora solar radio telescope. A CME was associated
with this event, it is not expected to be geoeffective. Regions
1386 and 1387, the most active on the disk, are expected to continue
producing C-class flares, with a chance of isolated M-class activity
over the next 3 days. The solar wind conditions were normal over
the last 24 hours. The multiple impact of the CMEs observed on
25 and 26 December is likely to cause disturbance to the solar
wind parameters from late on 28 December. A southern polar coronal
hole might elevate the solar wind speed again on day 3.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 5 12211122
Learmonth 2 22100001
Norfolk Island 2 11100112
Camden 2 11200001
Canberra 1 01100001
Hobart 1 11100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00100000
Casey 6 33300011
Mawson 2 22200000
Davis 3 --211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Dec 25 Quiet to Active
29 Dec 20 Quiet to Active
30 Dec 20 Quiet to active
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours.
Quiet to Active conditions with Storm periods in Antarctica may
be expected for the next 3 days due to the expected arrival of
CMEs and that of a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Fair
29 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
30 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Dec 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
29 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs ranging from 10 to 30% observed over the
last 24 hours. MUFs are expected to be near monthly values for
low and mid latitudes for the next 3 days. Possible depressed
periods for high latitudes due to the increased geomagnetic activity
for 28-30 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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