[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 December 11 issued 2329 UT on 18 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 19 10:29:07 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Dec 20 Dec 21 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 128/81 128/81 128/81
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
B and C1 flares from regions 1376 (N20W08) and 1381 (S18E19).
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next 3 days, with
a small chance of M-class events. The solar wind speed was stable
at ~260km/s until a weak shock around 18UT and has since risen
to ~320km/s. The IMF Bz was neutral until the same time, thereafter
varying up to +/-7nT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 21111022
Darwin 9 32222232
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 5 21111032
Norfolk Island 3 11110022
Camden 3 10111022
Canberra 1 10010011
Hobart 2 11110012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00020000
Casey 6 22321121
Mawson 4 30111120
Davis 6 22222122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 0 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Dec 5 Quiet
20 Dec 3 Quiet
21 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were mostly quiet during the last 24 hours, with a weak
impulse at ~19UT bringing a brief unsettled period at mid latitudes.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Dec 145
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Dec 150 0 to 35% above predicted monthly values
20 Dec 150 0 to 35% above predicted monthly values
21 Dec 140 0 to 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs were observed over most of the Australian
region during the last 24 hours, especially overnight. Normal
HF conditions with MUF enhancements are expected for the next
3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 268 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 15500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list