[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 December 11 issued 2343 UT on 17 Dec 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 18 10:43:43 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT -- SECTION 4B CORRECTED --
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec: 120/72

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Dec             19 Dec             20 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
a C1 flare at 17/0501 from region 1376 (N21W04) and a C3 flare 
at 17/2255. Three CMEs were observed, but none is expected to 
be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to be low for the 
next 3 days. The solar wind speed continued to decline during 
the UT day from ~300km/s to ~260km/s. The IMF Bz was neutral.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101111
      Darwin               6   22122222
      Townsville           4   22211111
      Learmonth            2   11002101
      Norfolk Island       1   10000012
      Camden               1   00101011
      Canberra             0   00001000
      Hobart               1   10001101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                6   32222111
      Mawson               4   10001014
      Davis                6   22222122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              0   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Dec     2    Quiet
19 Dec     3    Quiet
20 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic 
regions were quiet during the last 24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Dec   134

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Dec   125    0 to 20% above predicted monthly values
19 Dec   115    0 to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Dec   115    0 to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs were observed over most of the Australian 
region during the last 24 hours, especially overnight. Normal 
HF conditions with MUF enhancements are expected for the next 
3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 322 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    18600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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