[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 December 11 issued 2313 UT on 11 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 12 10:13:52 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Two non-earthward directed CMEs were observed due to the
eruption of two filaments. Solar wind speed mostly stayed
between 400 km/s and 500 km/s and the Bz component of IMF
mostly varied between +/-5nT during the UT day today. Solar
activity is expected to be Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22212322
Darwin 9 32222322
Townsville 9 22222332
Learmonth 8 31212322
Norfolk_Island 6 22212222
Camden 8 22213322
Canberra 6 22212221
Hobart 8 22213322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Dec :
Macquarie_Island 11 21125311
Casey 24 45533333
Mawson 21 43323354
Davis 21 33434352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2132 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Dec 5 Mostly Quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
13 Dec 3 Quiet
14 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at Quiet to Unsettled levels during the last 24 hours. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected on 12 December. Mostly Quiet
Geomagnetic conditions may be expected for 13 and 14 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of MUF
enhancements were observed during the last 24 hours. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Dec 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Dec 100 about 10% above predicted monthly values
13 Dec 105 about 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Dec 105 about 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal MUFs with periods of some enhancements
were observed today. Periods of sporadic E-layers were observed
at low and some mid latitude locations. Mostly Normal HF
conditions with about 10 to 15% enhancements in MUFs may be
expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 165000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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