[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 December 11 issued 2344 UT on 10 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 11 10:44:33 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. One C1
flare was observed from region 1375(N09E39) at 0631UT. Solar
wind speed gradually increased from 350 km/s to nearly 500 km/s
during the first half of the UT day and then decreased to 350
km/s by the time of this report around 2330UT. The Bz component
of IMF varied between +5 and -9nT during the UT day today. Solar
activity is expected to be Very Low to Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A K
Australian Region 9 23321132
Darwin 7 22321222
Townsville 11 23322233
Learmonth 9 33321222
Norfolk_Island 6 22221122
Camden 10 23321133
Canberra 8 23320032
Hobart 10 23321133
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Dec :
Macquarie_Island 8 22331122
Casey 22 45532233
Mawson 25 44432255
Davis 24 44543234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 ???? ????
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Dec 5 Quiet to unsettled
12 Dec 3 Quiet
13 Dec 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at Quiet to Unsettled levels during the last 24 hours. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected on 11 December. Mostly Quiet
Geomagnetic conditions may be expected for 12 and 13 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of MUF enhancements
were observed during the last 24 hours. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Dec 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Dec 140 about 20% above predicted monthly values
12 Dec 145 about 25% above predicted monthly values
13 Dec 145 about 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs were observed today with periods of sporadic
E-layers at low and some mid latitude locations. Mostly Normal
HF conditions with about 20 to 25% enhancements in MUFs may be
expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: No data available at this time
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: No data available at this time
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: No data available at this time
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: No data available at this time
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 309 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 46000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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