[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 6 09:54:14 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Aug             07 Aug             08 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity declined to Low on Aug 05. Only isolated 
minor C-class flares were observed. AR 1261 decayed to a beta-gamma 
magnetic configuration and has reduced considerably in area. 
AR 1263 remains relatively unchanged and maintains potential 
for major flare activity. Significant disturbances observed in 
solar wind parameters following shock passages between 17-19 
UT. IMF Bz fluctuated +/- 20 nT and energetic ions remain enhanced 
with peak flux values observed following shock passage. Expect 
continuing solar wind disturbance 06-07 Aug.
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 1720UT on 
05 Aug, and a moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 
1830UT on 05 Aug.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
05/1710UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours.


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet to Minor Storm

Estimated Indices 05 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   21110255
      Darwin              14   21110255
      Townsville          15   22110255
      Learmonth           18   21110256
      Canberra            10   11000145
      Hobart               -   --------    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug : 
      Darwin              48   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            7   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        5   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            46   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1000 1213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Aug    40    Minor Storm
07 Aug    20    Active
08 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind velocities remained slightly above 400 km/s 
following the weak shock passage observed after 04/21UT. The 
regional geomagnetic field remained Quiet at low to mid latitudes 
with Unsettled to Minor Storm conditions early in the UT day 
at high latitudes, later declining to Quiet. Two further shock 
passages were observed at the ACE satellite platform at 1720 
and 1830UT. Following the second of these the IMF Bz component 
fluctuated to -20nT for some hours before trending strongly northward 
to +18nT late in the UT day. During this period the regional 
geomagnetic field was at Active to Minor Storm levels at low 
to mid latitudes with Major Storm conditions at high latitudes. 
The Proton Event of Aug 04 remains in progress. Solar wind ion 
enhancements showed peak flux values following the shock passages 
of 17-18UT. Expect continuing elevated geomagnetic activity with 
major to Severe Storm levels possible 06 Aug. A further solar 
wind shock passage is possible related to the M9 level flare 
observed on Aug 04.
In the IPS magnetometer data for 05 Aug, a weak (22nT) impulse 
was observed at 1902UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Fair           Normal         Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 04 08 2011 1635UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Aug      Fair           Fair-poor      Poor(PCA)
07 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in 
HF conditions may be expected during the next 2 days due to expected 
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Aug    44

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Sporadic-E observed after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Spread-F observed local afternoon, Brisbane, Hobart, Perth. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Aug    30    10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
07 Aug    30    10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
08 Aug    45    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significant MUF depressions possible due to geomagnetic 
disturbance following recent solar flare activity. SWF's possible. 
Expect poor ionospheric support Antarctic region days one and 
two.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.7E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 360 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    62500 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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