[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 5 09:56:40 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M9.3    0357UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Aug             06 Aug             07 Aug
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Very low
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             110/60
COMMENT: Subsequent to activity over recent days, active region 
1261 produced an M9 level flare peaking at 04/0358UT from N19W36. 
The Culgoora Radiospectrograph observed a strong Type III event 
and Type IV event in association with this flare. LASCO C3 imagery 
showed a front-side asymmetric full-halo CME with estimated
propagation 
velocity of 1450 km/s. This event is likely to be geoeffective 
and solar wind shocks from the flare sequence over the previous 
three days may be cumulative. The ACE satellite platform observed 
a weak solar wind shock at 04/2130UT. Solar wind velocities increased 
from 350 to 425 km/s. The IMF Bz trended southward to -10nT. 
This is possibly a CME passage from the M6 level flare observed 
at 03/1340UT. AR1261 declined slightly over the previous 12 hours. 
AR1263 showed some magnetic reconfiguration. Both regions maintain 
potential for further major flare activity. Significant disturbance 
in solar wind parameters is anticipated 05-06 Aug. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
04/1150UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12100003
      Darwin               5   13200013
      Townsville           3   02100003
      Learmonth            3   11200003
      Canberra             1   01000002
      Hobart               -   --------
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Aug    50    Storm Levels 
06 Aug    30    Active to Minor Storm 
07 Aug    20    Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 3 August and 
is current for interval 4-6 August. The geomagnetic field was 
Quiet with Unsettled conditions observed at some stations late 
in the UT day following a weak shock in the solar wind. Following 
this shock passage, IMF Bz trended southward to -10nT. Significant 
geomagnetic activity reaching major storm levels is anticipated 
days one and two due to solar wind disturbances resultant from 
the flare sequence of the past three days. IPS Geostat Alert 
118 has tracked energetic ion enhancements and a weak sudden 
geomagnetic impulse over the past 12 hours. These are typical 
precursor events to significant geomagnetic activity. 
A weak (11nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 2155UT on 04 Aug. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 04 08 2011 0635UT and is in
progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor(PCA)
06 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
07 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in 
HF conditions may be expected during the next 3 days due to expected 
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Aug    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
      SWF's observed 04-05UT Townsville , Darwin, Learmonth.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      SWFs observed 04-05UT Norfolk Is., Brisbane, Sydney, Perth. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Aug    25    20 to 40% below predicted monthly values 
06 Aug    30    10 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
07 Aug    30    10 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 3 August 
and is current for interval 4-6 August (SWFs) . Significant MUF 
depressions possible due to geomagnetic disturbance following 
recent solar flare activity. SWF's possible. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:    51800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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