[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 April 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 30 09:50:55 EST 2011 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Apr             01 May             02 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region 
1203 (N18E64) was the source of a C3.8 class event at 0026UT 
and region 1195(S15W65) produced a C1.5 flare at 2048UT. Solar 
wind speed was approx 350km/s between 00UT-16UT after which it 
steadily increased to be 490km/s at the time of this report. 
The increase in solar wind velocity was due to the arrival of 
the high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. 
The north-south component of the IMF, Bz ranged between +/-3nT 
between 00UT-16UT and then increased in magnitude with sustained 
southward periods of -10nT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain 
elevated for the next 2-3 days due to a group of equatorial
positioned coronal holes. Solar activity is expected to remain
Low for the next 3 days with slight chance of M class flare. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 29 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   12111235
      Darwin              11   22111235
      Townsville           7   12111124
      Learmonth           10   12110235
      Hobart               9   11111225
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Gnangara            NA
      Hobart               5   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   0001 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Apr    16    Active 
01 May    13    Unsettled to Active 
02 May    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the past 
24 hours with an increase to Active to Minor Storm levels between 
18-24UT for mid to high latitudes. This increase was due to the 
arrival of the high speed solar wind stream from current equatorial 
positioned geoeffective coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity is 
expected to be Unsettled to Active for the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Apr    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  44

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Apr    50    near predicted monthly values 
01 May    45    near predicted monthly values 
02 May    45    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support observed over the 
last 24 hours for the AUS/NZ region. Enhanced MUFs of 35% during 
local day for IPS Cocos Is. station as well as enhancements during 
local night for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Some disturbed periods 
observed for Antarctic regions. MUFs expected to be near monthly 
values for low latitudes over the next 3 days. Possible depressed 
periods for mid latitudes and disturbed periods for high latitudes 
due to geomagnetic activity for 30Apr-02May. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 330 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    32300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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