[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 14 09:31:36 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low with eight C-class X-ray flares
observed over the previous day, mainly from AR1191(N08E56)
and a new region on the east limb, AR1193(N17E71). The largest
was a C2.5. The solar wind speed gradually decayed from around
600 km/s to under 500 km/s as the coronal hole high speed wind
stream rotated away from the Earth. The IMF Bz fluctuated between
+/- 5nT. No CMEs were observed. Activity is expected to remain
low over the next few days with possible isolated M-class flares.
Solar wind speed is expected to continue to decay as the coronal
hole high speed stream rotates away, however some minor effects
from a CME observed early on the 12th of April are expected to
be observed on the 16th of April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 23332111
Darwin 9 23332112
Townsville 10 23332222
Learmonth 9 33332111
Canberra 6 12332100
Hobart 11 13443101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 42 (Unsettled)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 23 2254 5423
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Apr 7 Quiet
15 Apr 5 Quiet
16 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled at mid to high lattitudes
and Active at high lattitudes prior to 10UT April 13 corresponding
to an IMF Bz southward of around 5nT. After 10UT the Bz went
northward, reducing activity to mainly Quiet levels. Activity
is expected to be Quiet for the next few days as the solar wind
speed gradually decays back to normal levels. Some Unsettled
periods are expected on the 16th of April due to an expected
glancing blow from a CME observed on the 12th of April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Apr 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by up to 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by
20%.
15 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by
20%.
16 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to slightly enhanced MUFs were observed
yesterday. Significant blanketing E was observed at mid lattitudes
around local nightfall.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 532 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 239000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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