[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 26 09:21:36 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 83/24 83/24 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the last 24 hours.
The effect of the coronal hole showed weakening as the solar
wind speed gradually decreased from 650 to 460 km/s during the
UT day today. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field mostly varied between +/-4 nT until around 0800UT and then
stayed close to the normal value through the rest of the day.
Further weakening in the solar wind stream is expected to continue
on 26 September. Solar activity is expected to stay at very low
to low levels for the next 3 days with possibility of C-class
flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 33221211
Darwin 5 32111211
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 7 32222211
Canberra 3 22120100
Hobart 4 22221101
Casey(Ant) 12 44-22221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 46 (Unsettled)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13 1333 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Sep 5 Quiet
27 Sep 4 Quiet
28 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were
observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditins
may be expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
over the last 24 hours with some degradations on high latitude
circuits. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Sep 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Sep 40 near predicted monthly values
27 Sep 40 near predicted monthly values
28 Sep 40 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across
Australian/NZ regions today. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 494 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 127000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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