[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 25 09:38:52 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Sep 26 Sep 27 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the last 24
hours. Some strengthening in the solar wind stream due to
the previously anticipated coronal hole effect was observed
today as the solar wind speed gradually increased from 450
to 600 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field mostly varied between +/-5 nT
during the UT day today. There is still some chance that the
solar wind stream may continue to stay strong for one more
day on 25 September. Solar wind stream is expected to remain
mostly at normal levels on 26 and 27 September. Flare activity
of C-class levels may be observed over the next 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to stay at very low to low
levels over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: Mostly quiet to
unsettled.
Estimated Indices 24 Sep : A K
Australian Region 12 33232323
Darwin 11 33222323
Townsville 12 23332323
Learmonth 10 32222323
Canberra 7 22122322
Hobart 11 2-332323
Casey(Ant) 16 4-332432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Sep :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 57 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Sep 7 Quiet to unsettled
26 Sep 4 Quiet
27 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions
were observed over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar
geomagnetic conditions may be expected on 25 September.
The activity is expected to decline to quiet levels on the
following two days thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
over the last 24 hours with some degradations on high latitude
circuits. Isolated periods of minor degradations in HF conditions
may be possible on high and some mid latitude locations on 25
September due to some possible continued rise in geomagnetic
activity on this day. HF conditons are expected to return to
mostly normal levels on most locations on the third day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Sep 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Sep 40 near predicted monthly values
26 Sep 42 near predicted monthly values
27 Sep 42 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across
Australian/NZ regions today. Isolated periods of minor
degradation in HF conditions in the Australian/NZ region
may be possible on 25 September due to some possibility
of continued slight rise in geomagnetic activity on this
day. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected in this
region for the following two days thereafter.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 78400 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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