[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 5 10:30:45 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Region 1109 (N21W93) produced a C2.3 flare at 1635 UT
while region 1111 (N24W06) remains a beta region. There is the
small possibility of a C-class flare day one. Solar wind parameters
were undisturbed during the reporting period but are expected
to be somewhat disturbed for the next two days due to the effects
of a recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11101011
Darwin 2 11101012
Townsville 5 12212122
Learmonth 4 11202112
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 00101001
Casey(Ant) - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1001 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Oct 10 Quiet to unsettled. Isolated active levels at
higher latitudes.
06 Oct 7 Mostly quiet. Unsettled at higher latitudes.
07 Oct 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
06 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
07 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Oct 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-02, 09-16 and 21-23
UT. Depressions to 25% at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-05, 12-13 and 19-22
UT. Depressions to 30% at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30% 02-07
UT at Darwin and to 20% 01-05 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25% at
Norfolk Is. 02-14, 23 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
12-18 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
06 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
07 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 307 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 47800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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