[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 4 10:22:06 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Solar wind
speed mostly stayed between 300 and 320 km/s during the
UT day and IMF Bz stayed close to the normal value
(between+/-3 nT) during this period. Solar activity
is expected to stay at very low levels for the next three
days with a small possibility of C-class flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11010111
Darwin 2 11010112
Townsville 4 12121121
Learmonth 2 21010111
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 01000000
Casey(Ant) - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0000 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Oct 2 Quiet
05 Oct 2 Quiet
06 Oct 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at quiet levels today.
Nearly similar level of activity may be expected for the next
3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
with periods of minor to mild MUF depressions on some mid
latitude locations over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Oct 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Oct 26 near predicted monthly values
05 Oct 26 near predicted monthly values
06 Oct 26 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of minor
to mild MUF depressions were observed across Australian/NZ
regions today. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 42100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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