[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 27 10:16:43 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the UT day today.
Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 400 to 340 km/s over
the last 24 hours and the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field varied between +/-2nT for most parts of the UT
day today. Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels
for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 22111011
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 4 2211112-
Learmonth 2 21011011
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 1 11001000
Casey(Ant) 7 33221121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1211 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Nov 4 Quiet
28 Nov 4 Quiet
29 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels today.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some MUF depressions were observed on most locations
over the last 24 hours possibly due to weak ionisations as the
solar activity has stayed at very low levels for several days.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three
days as no significant variation to the ionospheric conditions
is expected during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Nov 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Nov 4 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
28 Nov 4 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
29 Nov 4 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 25 November
and is current for interval 25-27 November. Some MUF depressions
were observed across the Aus/NZ regions over the last 24 hours
possibly due to weak ionisation as the solar activity has stayed
at very low levels for several days. Nearly similar HF conditions
may expected in this region over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 444 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 61500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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