[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 November 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 26 10:36:22 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov:  78/17

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Nov             27 Nov             28 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              79/19              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the UT day 
today. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 470 to 
400 km/s over the last 24 hours and the Bz component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field varied between +/-3nT 
for most parts of the UT day today. Solar activity is 
expected to stay at very low levels for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22122111
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Townsville           5   22122121
      Learmonth            5   22121112
      Canberra             3   12111011
      Hobart               4   22112110
      Casey(Ant)           8   3--22222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1111 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Nov     4    Quiet 
27 Nov     4    Quiet 
28 Nov     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels today. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next 
three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
27 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
28 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Some MUF depressions were observed on most locations 
over the last 24 hours possibly due to weak ionisations as the 
solar activity has stayed at very low levels for several days. 
Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the next three 
days as no significant variation to the ionospheric conditions 
is expected during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
25 Nov     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Nov     2    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
27 Nov     2    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
28 Nov     2    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 25 
November and is current for interval 25-27 November. Some 
MUF depressions were observed across the Aus/NZ regions over 
the last 24 hours possibly due to weak ionisation as the solar 
activity has stayed at very low levels for several days. 
Nearly similar HF conditions may expected in this region over 
the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 453 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    91800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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