[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 7 10:47:55 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.4 1536UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was at high levels today. Region 1121
(S18E47) produced one M-class (M5/1536UT) and 4 C-class flares.
Solar wind speed decreased from 340 km/s to 300 km/s by 0500UT
and then stayed mostly between 280 and 300 km/s during the rest
of the day. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
mostly ranged between +/-2 nT today. Solar activity is expected
to stay at low to moderate levels for the next three days. More
flares upto M-class may be possible from region 1121 over the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Darwin 4 12111112
Townsville 3 11111111
Learmonth 3 12101112
Canberra 1 01101000
Hobart 1 01111001
Casey(Ant) 7 23311112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0011 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled
08 Nov 7 Quiet to unsettled
09 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels today.
Recurrence pattern suggests a possible rise in geomagnetic
activity to unsettled levels on 7 and 8 November. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to stay mostly at quiet levels on 09 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with some MUF depressions
on mid latitudes were observed today. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected for most locations for the next 3 days with the
possibility of minor depressions in MUFs on high latitude stations
on 7 and possibly 8 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Nov 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Nov 12 near predicted monthly values
08 Nov 12 near predicted monthly values
09 Nov 14 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor MUF depressions were observed in the
Aus/NZ regions today. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
for this region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 301 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 24000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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