[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 November 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 6 10:49:52 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z NOVEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 04/2359UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.0 1331UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 85/27 86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was at moderate levels today. Region
1121 (S18E58) produced one M-class (M1/1329UT) and a C9.7 (at
0056UT). The region also produced an M1 flare at 2358UT the previous
day. More flares upto M-class may be possible from this region
over the next 3 days. Solar wind speed stayed around 300km/s
until 1400UT and then rose to 380 km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +2/-4nT. Solar activity
is expected to stay at low to moderate levels for the next three
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 11221211
Darwin 5 22121212
Townsville 3 10211210
Learmonth 4 11112212
Canberra 1 10111100
Hobart 3 11211200
Casey(Ant) 8 23232211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1101 2001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 4 Quiet
07 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled
08 Nov 7 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels today.
Similar level of activity may be expected for 6 November.
Recurrence pattern suggests a possible rise in geomagnetic
activity to unsettled levels with some possibility of
isolated active periods on 7 and 8 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Moslty normal HF conditions with some MUF depressions
on mid latitudes were observed today. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected for most locations for the next 3 days with the
possibility of minor to mild depressions in MUFs on high and
some mid latitude stations on 7 and 8 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov 14 near predicted monthly values
07 Nov 12 near predicted monthly values
08 Nov 12 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor MUF depressions were observed in the
Aus/NZ regions today. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
for this region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 20600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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