[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 May 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 21 09:23:04 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 May             22 May             23 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed decreased from 520 to 460 km/s and is expected 
to continue to decrease to pre-coronal levels today, 21 May. 
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged 
between +/-6 nT. Solar activity is expected to remain at Very 
Low levels for the next three days. However, there is a possibility 
that the previously numbered active region 1069 will rotate onto 
the eastern limb and raise solar activity levels slightly, on 
22-23 May. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222211
      Darwin               6   22222212
      Townsville          14   33323333
      Learmonth            8   32223211
      Canberra             3   11212200
      Hobart               5   21212211
      Casey(Ant)           8   33222211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            64   (Active)
      Canberra            35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              67   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   1112 3322     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 May     6    Quiet 
23 May     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 18 May and is 
current for interval 19-21 May. Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
were observed in the Australian region due to an increase in 
the solar wind speed. Expect conditions to gradually return to 
quiet levels today, 21 May as the solar wind speed continues 
to decrease to pre-coronal hole levels. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 May      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 May    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 May    20    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
22 May    20    Near predicted monthly values 
23 May    20    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mild MUF depressions were observed in the Australian 
region due to the lower EUV levels emitted from the sun, resulting 
from the lack of sunspots on the visible solar disc. Expect this 
trend to continue until sunspot numbers return to predicted levels. 
Note, sunspot region 1069 is due to rotate onto the visible solar 
disc on 22 May. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 386 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:    78900 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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